Category: Mortgage News Daily

Posted To: MBS CommentaryTurkish Lira bounced in the overnight session–not in any epic fashion, but enough to result in a bit of spillover for stocks/bonds. 10yr yields rose as high as 2.9022 before cooling back down. Notably, yields fell even as Lira maintained its token recovery. This simply reiterates yesterday’s point that US markets have their own agenda . Although they may periodically pay some attention to big swings in Turkey, they have already shown an ample willingness to trade against the grain of Lira volatility. With that in mind, the recent floor around 2.85% looks like the next major technical level for 10yr yields, whether we’re looking at US markets keeping a close eye on Turkey or not caring at all. In other words, this was a bounce that bonds had decided on yesterday, independent of further…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe effects of Hurricane Irma continue to be felt in the Southeast, with Florida the only state to report an increase in its delinquency rate in May. The rate in the state was up 1 percentage point compared to May 2017 and gave Florida the third highest rate in the nation at 6.2 percent. CoreLogic, in its Loan Performance Insights Report, said the rest of the nation continues to improve, although Texas, still impacted by Hurricane Harvey, saw rates remain the same as a year earlier. The national rate was 4.2 percent compared to 4.5 percent in May 2017, the lowest rate for a May in 12 years and within 0.1 percent of the previous low in May 2006. The rate is also well below the pre-crisis period of 2000 to 2006 when the share of delinquent mortgages averaged 4.7 percent. Within the national number…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. With the exception of the past two days, this leaves us at the best levels in more than 3 weeks. In general, that move was made possible by financial drama in Turkey, but caveats abound. It’s taken a massive amount of pain in Turkish markets/currency to result in a fairly modest move for US interest rates in the bigger picture. Moreover, US rates continue paying attention to multiple sources of inspiration. Turkey was just one among many in that regard, and even then, only when Turkish market movement was its most extreme. More so than yesterday, today brought some hope that the worst is over for Turkey. While that’s good for Turkey, it’s not good for rates in the US, all other things being equal. That said, it…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates stayed steady at the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks as financial markets are still accounting for additional risks relating to Turkey. Simply put, Turkey is in the midst of a debt/currency/banking crisis and investors are worried about some sort of domino effect among banks that are heavily invested in Turkish banks. All this is worth a bit of “safe-haven” demand for US Treasuries, which offer essentially risk-free returns and a liquid place to park money temporarily. When investors buy more bonds–all other things being equal–it causes bond prices to rise . When bond prices rise, investors are technically willing to accept lower interest payments, and it’s that part of the equation that speaks to lower interest rates on US Treasuries and mortgage rates. Bottom line: drama…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryAnother day, another chance for market watchers and pundits of all types to make mountains out of Turkish molehills. Yes, the financial crisis in Turkey is important and it’s still a thing , but no… it’s not the most important market mover for bonds or stocks at the moment. There’s only a very small possibility that it’s even the biggest risk to the global financial market. Stocks and bonds agreed today, as neither covered any special new ground despite another big drop in the value of Turkish currency. There were also some unsubstantiated headlines that caused a bit of intraday volatility–but that was mostly limited to Turkish markets. 10yr Treasuries, for instance, were unchanged to slightly weaker . Same story for MBS. Had domestic markets been taking any compelling cues…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline PressDon’t think that correct mortgage documentation is important? Think again, or ask Citigroup. The Federal Reserve said Friday it had fined Citigroup $8.6 million over poor quality mortgage documentation practices at its CitiFinancial subsidiary in 2015. The Fed Citi mishandled customer files as it was preparing to wind down its mortgage servicing business, doing so in 2017. But there is good news! The Fed said that the problem was corrected, and the Fed is terminating a separate 2011 enforcement action against Citigroup on a separate residential mortgage loan servicing matter, citing sustainable improvements by the bank. Dot those i’s and cross those t’s! Capital Markets The various high-ranking officials within the Federal Reserve know just as much about the direction of the…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryDid anyone else have to sit through the drug addiction video (or was it a book?) in grade school (or was it middle school?) where the main character kept returning to this amazing fantasy of driving an exotic sports car. Each time, he had to drive farther and faster to get the same enjoyment. You get the idea. Same story for bond markets when it comes to overseas economic/political/debt drama. We need more and more in order to fuel an ongoing rally. As of this morning, we just took a hit of the same drug that made us high on Friday, and… …nothing happened. Perhaps, if the Turkish drama spirals out of control in a bigger way, bonds will be more willing to entertain a break below that white dotted line. Until then, we’re left to wonder if this little diversion has run its course. There…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryTurkey (the country, not the lunch meat) is the 17th biggest economy in the world in terms of GDP. That’s roughly 20% bigger than the next closest country, Saudi Arabia, and 4 times bigger than Greece. All that to say, Turkey isn’t a completely insignificant piece of the global economy. So the fact that they’re having a rather epic debt crisis is making the news. I discussed this a bit yesterday, and at the time, we weren’t seeing enough correlation spill over from the plummeting Lira to US markets. Not only that, but by far and away, yesterday’s biggest domestic market movements were completely independent. Bonds big move lower in yield followed the Producer Price Index. At that time, Lira were doing nothing. And it was the same story with the quick stock sell-off at 3…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireAn aging housing stock is usually thought of as a problem. Older homes can be more expensive to maintain and easily fall into enough disrepair to be a health or safety hazard or completely uninhabitable. Construction since the housing crisis has not kept pace with the homes that age out or are otherwise removed from the housing stock and this means that the overall age of the U.S. housing stock is gradually aging. Na Zhao, writing in the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) Eye on Housing blog says data from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS) puts the median age of owner-occupied homes at 37 years compared to a median age of 31 years in 2005. The aging trend, as the figure below shows, accelerated during the Great Recession. Na Zhao, while not denying that the increasing age…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates , and indeed most interest rates, are tied to movement in the bond market. In turn, bonds tend to benefit when big, scary stuff is shaking global economic confidence. In today’s case, the debt crisis in Turkey did just that. Investors sought safe haven in bonds, and rates moved to the lowest levels since July 20th. Lest you think that Turkey is a constant arrow in the quiver of potential market movers for rates, understand that things have had to get pretty bad for US markets to unequivocally respond. This has been a festering for several days (even months, depending upon how nervous or clairvoyant you might be by nature). Today was really the first day that where there’s no doubt that Turkey is in the drivers’ seat for global financial markets. See how weird that sounded? You…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.