Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe narrative has grown (remained?) the same for bonds lately. If stocks are losing ground, then it’s time to rally . If stocks are stabilizing or recovering, it’s time to sell . Today was more of the same in that regard. For the first few hours of the day, yields moved gradually higher despite the inability of core inflation to even meet forecast levels (in its defense, it was really really close!). But when stocks began losing ground in a fairly convincing way, bonds began to improve. Stock losses were compounded by headlines surrounding the Brexit process, where there was apparently some drama today regarding Theresa May’s cabinet and its ability to agree on the current draft proposal. After a few conflicting reports, it finally came out that there was sufficient agreement. British…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates began the day in roughly unchanged territory. Some lenders were microscopically stronger or weaker compared to yesterday, but not enough to impact the average mortgage borrower. For the first few hours of the day, it looked as if rates would stay unchanged or possibly move slightly higher. That all changed when stocks began losing ground. It’s always worth remembering (and this will be especially true when the next time it’s proven) that there’s no magic rule that says stock prices and interest rates must move in the same direction. It is true that there are frequent examples of such correlation, but there are plenty of other examples where the correlation complete breaks down. All that to say that stock losses helped rates today, but will not always necessarily help rates in…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: MND NewsWireWhile reams of research have been done on why members of the Millennial generation are less likely to own a home compared to their baby boomer and Gen X elders at the same age, the Urban Institute (UI) notes that knowing the reasons doesn’t necessarily shed much light on the potential long-term implications of this behavior. Delaying homeownership , according to UI analysts Jung Hyun Choi and Laurie Goodman, may reduce the wealth the generations’ members will acquire over their lifetime. Goodman and Choi used a dataset called the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) which has tracked individuals since 1968 to identify individuals who reached age 60 between 2003 and 2015 and gather information on their histories, including the age at which they bought their first homes. Half of the older adults…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds are actively trying to decide who they are and what they want to do with their lives. Will they be barometers of economic growth and inflation? Or will they be gauges of Fed bond buying and US government bond selling (supply and demand)? The answer is “yes” on both accounts, but as is often the case–especially when yields have been holding at lofty levels–there’s a bit of uncertainty as to how much of the future is already priced-in. Put another way, in a rising rate environment where the reasons for the weakness are well known and well anticipated, bonds increasingly ask “are we there yet?” Today brings a fresh update on one of those “reasons for weakness” in the form of October’s CPI data. Inflation has also been holding near post-crisis highs…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: MND NewsWireMortgage application activity continued to shrink during the week ended November 9. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage application volume dropped by 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis when compared to its level on November 2. The index has declined by an aggregate of 9.7 percent since it posted its last increase back on October 19. On an unadjusted basis the index was down 5 percent. The Purchase Index also continued its downhill trend, decreasing 2.3 percent on an adjusted basis to its lowest level since February 2017. The unadjusted Purchase Index fell 5 percent week-over-week and was 3.0 percent lower than the same week in 2017. The Refinance Index decreased 4.3 percent from the previous week to an 18 year low (December 2000)….(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: MBS CommentaryCPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy NFP report from 2 weeks back. Reason being: NFP contained a strong wage growth component, and that always generates some fear among bond traders that higher wages will translate to higher inflation. Economists aren’t exactly expecting a big uptick in tomorrow’s CPI data, but that’s precisely why it’s been something of a risk. In other words, if CPI were to come in much stronger than expected tomorrow morning, it could dampen spirits in the bond market. Of course CPI could always come in weaker too–which would cast even more doubt on the ability of wages to translate to inflation in the current economic cycle. It’s not that it hasn’t been happening, just that it hasn’t…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates improved by what could only be described as a token amount today. In other words, we’re not talking about any major changes. In fact, mortgage rates themselves will be unchanged from Friday for almost any scenario. As is so often the case, we can only measure the change in terms of “effective rates” (which take upfront costs into consideration). In general, changes in mortgage rates are reserved for big market moves whereas upfront costs and effective rates allow for smaller changes in the overall cost of financing. The bond markets that underlie mortgage rates were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday. In the meantime, the stock market lost ground rather abruptly . At times, bonds (rates) will take cues from stocks–especially when the latter is making a big move lower…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: MND NewsWireIt may be that California, where home prices have exploded over the last few years, has jumped the shark when it comes to affordability. CoreLogic’s Andrew LePage writes in the company’s Insights blog that September home sales in the state were the lowest in the country since September2007. The sales report comes in the wake of reports from several sources showing an abrupt slowdown in home price growth in many of the state’s largest metros. CoreLogic says the state’s annual gain of 4.1 percent in the median home price statewide was the lowest in more than two years. Coupled with higher mortgages rates, the lack of affordability appears to, in LePage’s words, have knocked some would-be buyers to the sidelines, unable or unwilling to buy. Sales do historically fade in September as school starts…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: Pipeline PressPeople vote with their feet. Some population movements are dramatic and garner headlines around the world, others not so much. “About 130,000 more residents left California for other states last year than came here from them…” according to a Sacramento Bee review of the latest census estimates. “They most often went to cheaper, nearby states — and Texas. Since 2001, about 410,000 more people have left California for Texas than arrived from there. That’s roughly equivalent to the population of Oakland.” Perhaps some of those vacated houses will be purchased by Zillow who the Houston Chronicle is telling us is launching a service called Zillow Offers early next year in Houston. Zillow will be making cash offers on homes from qualified sellers and then…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Posted To: MBS CommentaryAs of last Thursday, it didn’t look like traders were much interested in hearing arguments in favor of bonds. Then, an unexpectedly healthy little rally on Friday kept hope alive going into the 3-day weekend. Now this morning, the week begins with yields a few bps lower still. 10yr yields begin the week below the middle Bollinger Band (a 21-day moving average that serves as a sort of dividing line between a majority of buying and selling sprees. As can be seen in the most recent dip below (middle yellow line), sometimes the buying sprees are short-lived when we’re in the midst of a longer-term uptrend in rates. Momentum technicals (the stochastic oscillators at the bottom of the chart) are also in pretty good shape , with a potential bounce shaping up in shorter-term momentum. The message…(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.