Category: Mortgage News Daily

Posted To: MBS CommentaryRemember early 2018 when the fear was compounded by this list of bad actors? increased Treasury issuance to pay for the revenue shortfall in the new tax bill the upside economic/inflation potential created by the new tax bill A Federal Reserve that was increasingly intent on hiking rates and increasingly willing to decrease the size of its balance sheet (aka, bond buying) Foreign central banks that were tiptoeing ever close to their own “taper tantrum” moments It was enough to send 10yr yields quickly over 3% by May 2018. Then the Italian political drama reminded markets that things could still go wrong. Tariff uncertainty added to that sentiment and bonds sneaked through the summertime months without much of a fuss. Enter September. We knew September could bring a sea-change to the…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline PressTRID 2.0: mandatory compliance on 10/1 is only a few weeks away. Temenos has a primer on it , as does Qualia . The MBA had a piece on it . The NY MBA has a webinar next week. In Michigan the MMLA has a seminar on it this week. Hopefully everyone’s up to speed already. Lender Products and Services Stearns Wholesale helps brokers grow and brand their business with social media. Marketing Tools for SNAP 2.0 now offers Social Media Graphics for our most popular products and services. This marketing portal allows you to create personalized marketing pieces to help you extend your reach, grow your customer base and brand your business. Customizable flyer and social media templates can be personalized for both business-to-business and consumer relationships. It’s Easy! We provide the flyers…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryNot to be confused with the Red Sea, which is an actual place, the sea of red in the title is merely a reference to general bias toward weakness in bond markets for however long you care to look back in time (provided you don’t look back more than 2 years). Most pressing is the time frame between now and the end of August which has seen 10yr yields rise nearly 20bps. That makes the past 3 weeks the worst selling spree since April, and introduces yet another attempt to break free from the gravitational pull of 10yr yields at 3%. Bond bulls hope to see gravity kick in at the teal line in the following chart. The manner in which it’s been approached suggests we shouldn’t take such support for granted, but neither can the technical significance of the 3% zone (3.015% specifically, over…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline PressGiven plenty of warning, and evacuations, the deaths in the Southeast from Florence have people wondering, “Why do residents stick around?” It is complicated, ranging from stubbornness to not having enough money to buy gasoline, but this NY Times article does a good job summarizing it. Upcoming September Events Momentifi CEO Gibran Nicholas is hosting a series of webinars this week to help loan originators create fourth-quarter sales momentum and generate purchase business from referral sources other than real estate agents. The lead topic is, “How to Generate 10 Extra Loans from Financial Advisors in the Next 90 Days.” Click here to sign up and forward the link to your loan officers. Separately, Momentifi is excited to launch its new enterprise API and sales technology…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentarySeptember continues to be an unfriendly month for bonds, marked by an unfriendly trend that has carried yields almost exclusively higher. Some of the weakness can be chalked up to pent up selling demand that was on hold through the end of August, but economic data and supply situation (lots of bonds being issued by the time we count corporate debt ) are responsible for the lion’s share of the movement. Case in point, even with trade war fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and the Fed Funds rate rising just as quickly as markets expect, August still managed to offer up the highest readings in years in Manufacturing and Consumer Sentiment. Core inflation may have missed its forecast, but nonetheless remained over the 2% target. Wage growth rose to a post-crisis high in year-over-year terms,…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireThere were quite a few recent milestones, high and low, noted in the Quarter 2 Residential Property Loan Origination Report from ATTOM Data Solutions. The report covers the 2.09 million 1 to 4 unit residential loans originated during the quarter, an increase of 15 percent from the first quarter but only 1 percent more than a year earlier. One striking finding was the increase in the size of downpayments during the quarter – a median of $19,900, a record high in data going back to the first quarter of 2000. This is a 19 percent increase from $16,750 in the previous quarter and 18 percent from $16,925 in the same quarter last year. At a percentage, that represents 7.6 percent of the median sales price of the homes purchased with a mortgage during the quarter, compared to 6.6 percent in both of…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe robust growth in the economy in the second quarter may be the final peak of this expansion according to Fannie Mae’s Economic Development Report for September. Initial data indicates the 4.2 percent growth last quarter appears to be moderating to the estimated third quarter gain of 3.2 percent predicted in the August report. All factors considered, including inventory restocking and increased government spending leads Fannie’s Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR) to expect full-year 2018 growth of 3.0 percent before a slowdown to 2.3 percent in 2019 as the fiscal stimulus runs its course. ESR expects consumer spending and business fixed investment growth to moderate but remain at a solid pace but expect that trade will drag on growth. Second quarter growth had benefitted in part…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates may have had a fairly bad day last Friday, but today was worse . Today officially saw the average lender back at rates not seen since May 17th, 2018. That date might not seem too far away, but at the time, it marked the highest rates since late April of 2011. In other words, today’s rates matched 7-year highs. If there’s a saving grace , it’s the fact that underlying bond markets were able to improve throughout the day without most mortgage lenders adjusting rate sheets accordingly. In other words, if bonds are in the same territory by tomorrow morning, the average lender would be offering slightly lower rates. The other potential saving grace is that rates have had a bad enough moving streak that they’re increasingly likely to catch a break simply due to the normal cadence of…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS Commentary10yr yields briefly hit their highest levels since May 23rd this morning after one large trade started a snowball sell-off in Treasuries. Before that, modest weakness was already intact. “A snowball sell-off to 4-month highs” sounds a bit more dramatic than the actual scope of weakness. At the worst moments of the day, we were still looking at less than 3bps of losses in 10yr yields. It didn’t take long for buyers to take advantage of the yields, even though traders were contending with another big day of corporate bond issuance . Making the rally slightly less impressive was the fact that stocks were selling at the same time, potentially adding a risk-off component to the move. Ultimately, 10yr yields weren’t willing to dip back below the 2.99% technical level and Fannie…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryAugust was nice. September is mean… at least if you’re a bond. Investors wanted you in August when it was still unclear whether or not Turkey was going to be a big deal for the global financial system, whether the trade war would spiral out of control, or whether the EU was seeing a disturbing shift in economic data. What a difference a few weeks makes! Europe has reversed course, Turkey is “fixed,” we’ve had some very strong econ data, and trade war risks are roughly unchanged (which is positive in and of itself, because it means they’re not blossoming into the dire situations feared by some). Bottom line, no one wants to pay very much for bonds right now. A moderately big miss in Retail Sales isn’t even enough for a token Friday morning rally. Paradoxically though…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.