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Posted To: Pipeline PressSome are fond of saying, “Zillow’s never set foot in a house.” But the company is a force to be reckoned with, especially now that it is in the process of buying a lender (MLOA). And regardless of your opinion is about services like Zillow’s Zestimates, there is no doubt they have changed the way Americans research housing prices. How accurate are online pricing calculators? While I’m on the topic, by several measures housing is slumping. Pending sales are down Y-o-Y for seven straight months, existing sales have fallen four months in a row, home price increases are slowing, as are starts, homebuilder share prices are struggling, and inventory looks to be finally bottoming. Yes, rates are higher than a year ago, but have been stable for several months. Experts…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThis morning’s first chart is actually Private Payrolls (as opposed to nonfarm payrolls). Reason being: NFP accounts for Census Bureau hiring which creates massive, temporary spikes and drops in payroll counts every 10 years. Thus, if we look at long term charts of NFP, they’re underlying message is corrupted by this artificial ingredient. Instead, we can just look at private sector payrolls (“private payrolls”) for a more even-keeled idea of the trend. No matter which payroll count we’re examining, it’s apparent that we haven’t seen an outlying drop (something below 150k) for nearly a year. The caveat is that April’s initial reading fit that description, but was later revised up to 153k. The point, however, is that we have several recent examples of payrolls…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds were weaker in the overnight session, but only slightly. The onset of domestic trading saw a stronger contingent of traders lined up to buy bonds at the 8:20am CME open . The 8:15am ADP data was weaker. It may have helped a bit, but bonds were keen to wait another 5 minutes before the first noticeable rally of the morning. We drifted sideways from there until weakness in European and US equities spilled over into a risk-off trade that benefited bonds. NY Fed’s Williams was out with several moderately helpful comments shortly thereafter (discussed in today’s Huddle video ). From a technical standpoint, today’s modest gains keep yields in the same old range, albeit right in line with the ceiling for the 3rd straight day. This puts us in a position to rally back into the range…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. The discrepancy stems from mid-day bond market gains that were just barely enough for a few lenders to go to the trouble of revising their mortgage rate sheets before the end of business. In other words, if bonds were to hold in similar territory by tomorrow morning, we’d likely see most lenders offering slightly better deals. There’s a big question mark over tomorrow morning, however, due to the important jobs report set to be released at 8:30am ET. This is traditionally the most important economic report of any given month when it comes to interest rate reactions. While it can occasionally fail to cause a stir, it should always be respected for it’s volatility-inducing potential. The timing of the data means that…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireHousing trivia probably isn’t a major hobby, but if you are into it, it is your birthday and the U.S. Census Bureau brought a present. The Bureau has just released the results of its 2017 American Housing Survey . Not to make light of it, the biennial AHS is a huge aid to researchers or anyone who needs information on the size, composition, condition, and amenities that exist in the nation’s housing stock. But it is also kind of fun. The release includes national level data and more granular information on seven states (California, Colorado, Florida, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas) and 41 metropolitan areas , a number which includes most major American cities. Among the types of data that are available (and can be manipulated by the user to create custom tables) are breakdowns of housing…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryI’ve been pretty bearish on bonds, in general, since the end of 2016. Against that backdrop, we can of course still look for tactical opportunities, but there are also times to reinforce our defensive stance. The most recent bounce in rates/yields near the end of August was one of those instances where “defense” made more sense. With yields operating near 2.90%–the top of the recent range– it still makes sense , but the longer we see bonds resist breaking to higher levels, the more we may wonder if we’re going to see a friendly bounce occur INSIDE the broader consolidation range. In other words, maybe we’ll see a short-term ceiling at the teal line instead of the upper yellow line. There’s already some technical support for that idea from fast stochastics (short…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline PressIn September, major league baseball teams expand their 25-man roster to 40 as teams scramble for the playoffs in October. In the mortgage business, however, rosters are being cut in the 2nd and 3rd quarters as lenders reversed course and achieved a $580 per loan profit versus the $118 loss in the first quarter. Will the industry follow baseball into the fall and expand or contract their rosters as the purchase market cools off? “RIFs” continue, the latest semi-publicized one coming from the non-delegated correspondent sales group at SunTrust. (Rumor has SunTrust moving to an inside sales model for that group.) And Acopia announced a “repositioning.” “As we strategically realign our plans and investments to support our growing retail brands, we have decided to exit…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe first two trading days of September introduce a somewhat serious threat to the calm, sideways range that dominated the past 3 weeks. Granted, the rate spike in late July introduced a similar threat to the similar sideways range and we lived to tell the tale, but the bond bulls definitely made a weaker showing this time. 10yr yields only spent a few days prodding the floor around 2.80-2.82% in 10yr yields. Back in June/July, yields touched that floor on each of the 4 weeks that the range remained intact. Today’s specific threats came from Brexit-related news and a glut of corporate issuance . A stock sell-off at 9:30am helped bonds find their footing, but it wasn’t enough to motivate a bond rally. 10yr yields drifted sideways through the afternoon just over 2.90%–right on the edge…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireWill appraisals soon need to indicate a home’s driving distance to the nearest cold-brew drive-through? Could be. According to a new study by the Harvard Business School, when an outlet for Starbucks opens in a community, home prices in that ZIP code rise by 0.5 percent within one year. The information emerged from a larger study on gentrification which was conducted using census data as well as data from Yelp . The study’s authors say that Yelp may be a potential new tool for policymakers to monitor gentrification, the process of rebuilding homes and businesses in an area followed by an influx of more affluent residents. As this is often at the expense of earlier, often less well-off residents, it tends to be a volatile subject. The researchers say one big issue is the lack of consistent data…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates have only been moving higher gradually , but things are adding up . Today’s move brings them to the highest levels in nearly a month. In recent weeks, I’ve made it a point to qualify the actual pace of the movement by drawing a distinction between actual interest rates and the upfront costs associated with those rates. Because mortgage lenders tend to offer rates in 0.125% increments , it takes a certain amount of market movement before the average loan applicant would see a change in their quoted rate. But bond markets are moving every day. Upfront costs allow lenders a way to fine tune a loan quote. How many days can we see small increases in these upfront costs before actual interest rates begin to change? As it happens, today is probably the first day where a majority of…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.