Author: admin

Posted To: Pipeline PressMaybe I read somewhere that the average age of a loan officer is 76. Maybe not. (Actually, my visits with companies informally indicate that overall ages seem to be dropping as I see “new blood” entering the arena, often at lower comp plans with greater upside to compete with companies with very low basis points.) As Hurricane Michael approaches, I am reminded that there are plenty of older LOs, and people, in Florida (“God’s waiting room”) and other locales. There is actually a group that ranks active adult communities not only in Florida but around the U.S. based on location, residential types, amenities, price range, and lifestyle opportunities. (Who doesn’t want to live someplace that’s active? Ever seen a “sedate adult community” advertised…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS Commentary2009-2013 was an unprecedented time for the US bond market. It benefited not only from the initial blast of the Great Recession and the sluggish recovery that followed, but also from the ongoing blast of Fed bond buying and ultra-low rate policy During that time, economic data only ever mattered inasmuch as it affected the Fed’s accommodation game plan. Even then, markets were 10 times more willing to trade the changes in the Fed’s gameplan than they were the data itself. The 2013 taper tantrum is a great example (the data all but guaranteed a tapering announcement as of May 3rd, but markets didn’t even begin to trade that notion until a May 10th Hilsenrath article suggested the Fed was getting ready to taper. And it wasn’t until Bernanke mentioned it on May 22nd that things…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt appears that, while Americans are generally upbeat about the economy, housing, and their own financial fortunes, they have a little difficulty maintaining those sentiments. Fannie Mae said today that its Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reversed direction again in September, falling 0.3 point to 87.7. The downturn did not erase the strong August results; the index gained 1.5 points, recovering from two straight months of loss. The September HPSI, which is based on some responses to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS), dipped because of declines in three of its six components including the two reflecting sentiment about personal finances. However, the question about whether it was a good time to buy a home had net positive responses (the net is positive responses minus negative…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline Press“Rob, is any lender making money out there?” Well, what’s the old “joke?” “How do you get $5 million in the mortgage biz? Start with $10 million!” Not so funny when it’s real. Few companies are prospering, and what I hear more is, “We hope to outlast our competition by cutting costs and since we have deeper pockets.” Does that mean whichever company can lose more will outlast the others? Any lender making money deserves a big “congratulations” because it is very rough out there, whether it is margins, higher rates & volatility, seasonal factors, production staff not wanting to make moves until after year-end, whatever. And it is a lot easier to be a manager when your company is expanding than when you’re contracting…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireMortgage lenders have been increasingly reporting tighter margins as costs rise for each actual loan transaction. In the last few years the principal reason behind this as revealed in Fannie Mae’s quarterly Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey has been increased competition for customers. As the demand for ref inancing has fallen, purchase originations have not yet been able to pick up the slack, exacerbating the situation. The survey has found lenders are working to improve efficiency to cut the cost part of the profit equation. Outside of the mortgage industry, businesses are increasingly turning to digital technologies to reduce errors, cut costs, improve customer service, and speed up transactions. Among those businesses that deal with large amount of data, Artificial Intelligence, including…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates moved back over the 5% threshold, on average, for the first time since early 2011 today following mixed data on the jobs market. Why would “mixed data” be such a problem? It’s not, per se, but in this case, it reinforced certain trends that have posed big problems for rates. Namely, the annual pace of wage growth has now held at 2.8% or above for 4 months in a row. Previously, 2.8% was an isolated occurrence and sort of a magical line in the sand. Analysts and policy-makers lamented “frustratingly tepid wage growth” when we were below that line. Now that we’re on the other side, the prevailing belief/fear is that wage growth is high enough to put upward pressure on inflation, and that’s a big problem for interest rates (inflation is one of rates’ mortal enemies). I don’t want…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe jobs report may have missed the mark in terms of payrolls, but average hourly earnings put in its 4th straight month holding 2.8% (y/y) or higher. Before these past 4 months, 2.8% was a unicorn we saw on only a few brief occasions before it ran back into the woods. Bottom line: wage growth can’t merely be eye-rolled away by econo-bears. Believe me, I’d be the FIRST in line. 4 months of 2.8%+ means the odds increase that inflation will run a bit hotter. MBS Live hall-of-famer SK hit the nail on the head with this comment today: Hear hear! It is indeed striking that Powell’s press conference comment (last week) about the Fed not seeing a risk of an upside inflation surprise was not only poorly translated by newswire writers, but also relied upon by traders as inspiration for a…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryAt this point, there’s nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today’s NFP data. Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss. This time it’s 3.20-3.24%-ish. The specific level really doesn’t matter (sorry Gundlach). It’s just another visit to long-term highs that will either become a ceiling for some indeterminate time frame or it will serve as a temporary staging area for an even more brutal move higher. Is there a chance that we’ve overhyped today’s potential impacts? Yes and no. It’s true that the range of potential outcomes is big enough to deserve hype. But as we’ve seen so many times, “potential” is often wasted. Big impacts are often delayed. Traders may keep something in reserve for next week’s CPI data. In general though…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe availability of mortgage credit at least as measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) pulled back in September, with the government component of the index falling to the lowest level in four years . The MCAI registered 182.1 at month’s end, an 0.8 percent decline. An increase in the index indicates a loosening of credit, a lower number indicates standards have tightened . The components, representing different loan programs, largely offset each other, making substantial moves in both directions. The Conventional MCAI rose 1.2 percent and one of its components, the Jumbo Index increased by 2.7 percent. The Conforming MCAI, the second part of the Conventional Index, decreased by 0.7 percent and the Government MCAI lost 2.5 percent. “Credit…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireLesson learned? Whether they saw their credit decimated by the housing crisis and the Great Recession or merely watched loan standards tightened beyond their ability to qualify, Americans seem to have taken to heart the importance of their credit scores. The result, FICO says, is that consumer credit scores have reached a new high, an average of 704 points. Kenneth Harney, in an article for the Washington Post’s Writers’ Group, quotes FICO Vice President of Scores and Analytics Ethan Dornhelm that Americans are “making more judicious use of credit.” This means higher scores on the FICO model that weights them not only in terms of on-time payments but on the length of the credit history, the amount and type of credit a consumer has available, and how much of that available credit is being used…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.