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Posted To: Pipeline PressMaybe I read somewhere that the average age of a loan officer is 76. Maybe not. (Actually, my visits with companies informally indicate that overall ages seem to be dropping as I see “new blood” entering the arena, often at lower comp plans with greater upside to compete with companies with very low basis points.) As Hurricane Michael approaches, I am reminded that there are plenty of older LOs, and people, in Florida (“God’s waiting room”) and other locales. There is actually a group that ranks active adult communities not only in Florida but around the U.S. based on location, residential types, amenities, price range, and lifestyle opportunities. (Who doesn’t want to live someplace that’s active? Ever seen a “sedate adult community” advertised…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireHurricane Florence, the storm that tore up much of eastern North and South Caroline in September, may be especially disastrous in terms of VA loans. Black Knight looks at the possible impact of the storm in its current issue of Mortgage Monitor . In the 34 localities declared as Hurricane Florence disaster areas the Monitor found there were a total of 1.17 million properties, 474,000 of which carry at least one mortgage. North Carolina bore the brunt of the storm, and 80 percent of the affected mortgages, an estimated 385,000, representing more than 20 percent of both total properties and mortgaged homes, are in that state. In South Caroline an estimated 90,000 mortgaged homes are located in FEMA declared counties, about 10 percent of all homes in the state. Black Knight says that only one…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireIt appears that, while Americans are generally upbeat about the economy, housing, and their own financial fortunes, they have a little difficulty maintaining those sentiments. Fannie Mae said today that its Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reversed direction again in September, falling 0.3 point to 87.7. The downturn did not erase the strong August results; the index gained 1.5 points, recovering from two straight months of loss. The September HPSI, which is based on some responses to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS), dipped because of declines in three of its six components including the two reflecting sentiment about personal finances. However, the question about whether it was a good time to buy a home had net positive responses (the net is positive responses minus negative…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe jobs report may have missed the mark in terms of payrolls, but average hourly earnings put in its 4th straight month holding 2.8% (y/y) or higher. Before these past 4 months, 2.8% was a unicorn we saw on only a few brief occasions before it ran back into the woods. Bottom line: wage growth can’t merely be eye-rolled away by econo-bears. Believe me, I’d be the FIRST in line. 4 months of 2.8%+ means the odds increase that inflation will run a bit hotter. MBS Live hall-of-famer SK hit the nail on the head with this comment today: Hear hear! It is indeed striking that Powell’s press conference comment (last week) about the Fed not seeing a risk of an upside inflation surprise was not only poorly translated by newswire writers, but also relied upon by traders as inspiration for a…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates moved back over the 5% threshold, on average, for the first time since early 2011 today following mixed data on the jobs market. Why would “mixed data” be such a problem? It’s not, per se, but in this case, it reinforced certain trends that have posed big problems for rates. Namely, the annual pace of wage growth has now held at 2.8% or above for 4 months in a row. Previously, 2.8% was an isolated occurrence and sort of a magical line in the sand. Analysts and policy-makers lamented “frustratingly tepid wage growth” when we were below that line. Now that we’re on the other side, the prevailing belief/fear is that wage growth is high enough to put upward pressure on inflation, and that’s a big problem for interest rates (inflation is one of rates’ mortal enemies). I don’t want…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireMortgage lenders have been increasingly reporting tighter margins as costs rise for each actual loan transaction. In the last few years the principal reason behind this as revealed in Fannie Mae’s quarterly Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey has been increased competition for customers. As the demand for ref inancing has fallen, purchase originations have not yet been able to pick up the slack, exacerbating the situation. The survey has found lenders are working to improve efficiency to cut the cost part of the profit equation. Outside of the mortgage industry, businesses are increasingly turning to digital technologies to reduce errors, cut costs, improve customer service, and speed up transactions. Among those businesses that deal with large amount of data, Artificial Intelligence, including…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline Press“Rob, is any lender making money out there?” Well, what’s the old “joke?” “How do you get $5 million in the mortgage biz? Start with $10 million!” Not so funny when it’s real. Few companies are prospering, and what I hear more is, “We hope to outlast our competition by cutting costs and since we have deeper pockets.” Does that mean whichever company can lose more will outlast the others? Any lender making money deserves a big “congratulations” because it is very rough out there, whether it is margins, higher rates & volatility, seasonal factors, production staff not wanting to make moves until after year-end, whatever. And it is a lot easier to be a manager when your company is expanding than when you’re contracting…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryAt this point, there’s nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today’s NFP data. Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss. This time it’s 3.20-3.24%-ish. The specific level really doesn’t matter (sorry Gundlach). It’s just another visit to long-term highs that will either become a ceiling for some indeterminate time frame or it will serve as a temporary staging area for an even more brutal move higher. Is there a chance that we’ve overhyped today’s potential impacts? Yes and no. It’s true that the range of potential outcomes is big enough to deserve hype. But as we’ve seen so many times, “potential” is often wasted. Big impacts are often delayed. Traders may keep something in reserve for next week’s CPI data. In general though…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIf you’re looking for today’s recap, check out the Huddle . Or just know that we sold-off a bit more and then settled sideways, fairly close to yesterday’s highest rates. Mortgage lenders dinged rate sheets just a bit more and we’re now waiting to see the effects from tomorrow morning’s jobs data. If you’re looking for what some might call wisdom and what others might call food for thought, the rest of this might be interesting. There was one time in my life where I was sure that rates were going lower in fairly short order. That was almost exactly 10 years ago this week when the financial crisis was just about to pop. I felt super smart as 10yr yields plummeted from 3.8 to 2.04% in less than 1 month. Just over 1 month after that, I was surprised to see 10yr yields moving…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchIf you don’t happen to make it past this first sentence, just know that anyone telling you rates are much higher today is NOT lying to you. Anyone telling you the opposite is wrong, even though they may not understand why they’re wrong. Coming to such an understanding is no harder than reading the next few paragraphs. Mortgage rates can be tricky to follow, at first glance. They’re not quite like other rates that move frequently throughout the day and that are published in a standardized format in multiple obvious locations. I’m thinking of something like the 10yr Treasury yield for the sake of comparison. In fairly short order, it would be easy to find multiple sources on the web that are telling you the same story on 10yr yields. But when it comes to mortgage rates, you’re likely to get several…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.