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Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates didn’t move much for the second day this week. Unlike yesterday, there was a relatively massive amount of volatility in underlying financial markets. This was especially true for stocks and the US Treasury market (which sets the tone for the broader bond market where mortgages operate). Even if we look specifically at mortgage-backed securities (MBS), we see some of the best gains this month. In fact, mortgage rates likely would have ended the day with more noticeable improvement if the gains had remained intact. Unfortunately , the strength began to erode in the late morning hours. Bonds had benefited from massive stock losses, but starting just after 10am, stocks began to bounce back while bonds weakened (weaker bonds = higher rates). Momentum kicked into higher gear later…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryWhat a frustrating day! Yes, it’s true that bonds ended up in positive territory at the close, but it would have almost been better to endure a modestly weaker day without the volatility. As it stands, we were built up largely to be let down . Stocks began selling fairly aggressively overnight. 10yr Treasury yields were 5bps lower before domestic trading ever began and continued into even stronger territory by 10am ( 3.11% at the best levels ). All of that coincided with additional weakness in equities. Up until that point, MBS were stronger as well, but not nearly as noticeably as Treasuries. To make matters worse, the average lender didn’t pass along much of the improvement on rate sheets. That’s not uncommon and we would have been well within our rights to expect additional improvements…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryYesterday was boring and uneventful. Bonds seemed to be trying everything in their power to remain range-bound and avoid breaking out of the consolidation pattern we’d been tracking. By contrast, today’s bond market is unrecognizable –seemingly determined to break forcefully outside the consolidation pattern. There were significant gains overnight. As noted in this morning’s first update on MBS Live, these arrived hand-in-hand with heavy selling in stocks. The goal/challenge from here will be to convincingly break below the pivot point that we’ve been eyeing ever since we broke above coming in the other direction. 3.13% in 10yr yields is the line in the sand standing between us and more livable yields. Note: the chart above was snapped a few minutes before the last leg of the…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline PressHistorically the FHFA, and with it Freddie and Fannie, announce official loan levels for the following year soon after Thanksgiving . (There are always rumors prior.) The loan limits are based on home prices around the nation. After 2008, despite the prices in many areas dropping, the Agencies did what they could to maintain stability. Prices in most areas have since rebounded, and so it is expected by many that we’ll see an increase in the conventional conforming loan limits. But there is noise out there of the FHFA scaling back its presence and market share. This may take the form of eventual cut backs on programs (should Fannie & Freddie support landlords buying non-owner houses?). Or will they cut high balance loan limits? Changes take a while, so stay tuned. Credit Changes – Lender…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryAs of October 16th, we’d been tracking the most recent consolidation in bond yields (and stocks for that matter) waiting for a breakout to suggest the next dose of momentum. Stocks broke higher with conviction while bonds merely trickled sideways. Still, they’d technically broken the consolidation, thus implying more momentum toward higher rates. By the end of the following day, it showed up as 10yr yields moved back over 3.2%. That began a 2nd, bigger, broader consolidation pattern–the one we’re currently tracking (discussed in the Day Ahead ). Much like the previous pattern, the current consolidation is set to run out of room no later than Wednesday of this week. It took an exceptionally calm day today in order for bonds to remain inside the lines. If there’s an indication…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe basic candlestick or bar chart that the average bond analyst uses to track 10yr Treasury yields is doing a good job of capturing the current opposing forces in rates. On the one hand , the combination of economic data, NAFTA 2.0, and Fed comments (among other things) makes a logical case for higher rates. This is easily seen as the pervasive series of “higher lows” over the past 2 months. On the other hand , doubts about the sustainability of lofty economic numbers and doubts about the market’s ability to thrive with 10yr yields over 3.25% make a case for support. This can be seen in the less-developed series of “lower highs” leading back from the long-term high 2 weeks ago. The result is the typical triangle–a consolidation pattern where the higher lows and lower…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline PressResidential mortgage bankers are notoriously bad at actually retiring. They usually seem to come back as teachers, consultants, remodelers, etc. But plenty of people do retire, and per U.S. News the #1 place to retire is… Lancaster, PA ? Bring a sweater. Legal news Eagle Home… Universal American Mortgage Company, LLC, based in Miami and operating as a subsidiary of Lennar Corporation, has agreed to pay the United States $13.2 million to resolve allegations that it violated the False Claims Act by falsely certifying that it complied with FHA mortgage insurance requirements in connection with certain loans. “…between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2011, UAMC knowingly submitted loans for FHA insurance that did not qualify. The United States further alleged that UAMC improperly incentivized…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates didn’t move much today. Lenders who made changes to Friday’s rate sheets generally did so toward slightly higher rates. Actually, it would be more precise to say those lenders raised upfront costs associated with any given rate. This is typical on days where the broader rate market is slightly weaker, but not weak enough for mortgage lenders to adjust mortgage rates by the standard 0.125% increment. In the bigger picture , this leaves the average lender quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of roughly 5% on top tier scenarios. There were no major developments or economic reports to move the bond market (which underlies rates) today. The rest of the week is on the light side as well, but things pick up on Thursday and Friday. Loan Originator Perspective Bond markets slumbered…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today. Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place. Stocks made a case for a bond rally (not that stocks are in total control of bonds, but all other things being equal, stocks’ intraday momentum is frequently seen accompanying bond rallies). European markets pushed in the other direction with German Bund yields rising 3 times as fast as US 10yr yields. The net effect was moderate weakness, mostly early in the day. That stands to reason as Europe is closed during the 2nd half of our domestic trading day (therefore not around to keep adding is influence). In the bigger picture, the weakness wasn’t a big deal. We’re effectively sideways at 7-year highs in rates. That’s been the case for most of the month. Stocks…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireFannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group is still expecting that economic growth will “likely” be solid in the third quarter, but they are otherwise hedging their bets. In their October Outlook, the economists said the lower job growth in September does not alter their view that the labor market is strong, but GDP growth has probably slowed from its second quarter pace, partly reflecting a deceleration of product investment and consumer spending. The surge of soybean exports that tried to get ahead of tariffs has subsided and with a strengthening dollar, the trade deficit has probably widened, and residential fixed investment is probably also down, extending that decline into a third straight quarter. Real estate sales commissions are part of that calculation and home sales…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.