Category: Mortgage News Daily

Posted To: MND NewsWireConstruction spending in September was largely unchanged from where it was in August. The U.S. Census Bureau said that private and public sector spending during the month was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.330 trillion, not statistically different from the 1.329.0 billion the previous month. The figure does represent a gain of 7.2 percent from September 2017 spending of $1.240.4 trillion. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis total spending during the month was $119.7 billion, down from $123.3 billion in August. In 2018 through September a total of $982.9 billion has been spent, a 5.5 percent increase over the first nine months of 2017. Privately funded construction in September was at an annual rate of $1.020 trillion, up 0.3 percent from August and 6.1 percent more than in September…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchIt’s Thursday! That means it’s time, once again, to set the record straight on today’s actual mortgage rates as opposed to those suggested by almost any other news article on the topic today. Why should you trust me as opposed to a multitude of financial journalists telling you something else? Simply put, they’re relying on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey (which can be unavoidably stale) whereas I’m using a multitude of actual lender rate sheets to derive a highly reliable/accurate average. Those using Freddie’s numbers are relying predominantly on lender quotes from Monday and Tuesday whereas I’ve updated my averages in just the past hour, and for the 2nd time today! Because the Freddie survey is always based largely on Mon/Tue numbers, the higher rates at the beginning of last week…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryToday ended up being somewhat triumphant for bonds. It didn’t begin that way, however. Yields were higher overnight and moved up just a bit more in the first hour and a half of domestic trading. Early economic data was largely ignored. At 9:30am, bonds started improving . Based on the timing, we can assume ETF trading played a key role as investors put on new trading positions for the new month. Stocks were also losing ground heading into 10am and that seemed to have a complimentary effect on bonds. Notably, bonds continued to fare well even as stocks bounced and moved higher by the end of the day. This leaves us with some evidence for a ceiling at 10yr yield levels near 3.16-3.17% and a floor at 3.06% based on the big bounce seen at the beginning of the week. Given that we’re currently…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe title of this commentary is not a Halloween pun . I don’t do Halloween puns anymore. No, there is some legitimate cause for concern–even a bit of fear–in the bond market movement seen so far this week. This movement wouldn’t be much to look at in and of itself, but it’s when we compare it to moves in equities markets that the fear starts to set in. What am I talking about? Really, the same thing I’ve brought up a few times since Monday morning when I noted that bond yields were unwilling to move to new lows on Monday despite stocks making new lows for the month. That’s highlighted in the chart below (“bounce clues”), as well as two subsequent examples of bonds’ willingness to sell despite an absence of obvious justification from stocks (highlighted as…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were higher by a fairly small margin once again today. Interest rates in general (which are determined by the bond market) have been taking most of their cues from recent stock market volatility. That’s not always the way it works, but it’s the way things have been in the wake of the big stock losses seen on several occasions in recent weeks. Now, as stocks begin to stabilize and move higher, rates have felt some pressure to do the same. Unfortunately, in relative terms, the recent drop in rates hasn’t even come close to matching the move in stocks. Simply put, the bond market is reluctant to improve too much without more substantial justification. Such justification could take the shape of even bigger stock losses, or more realistically, weaker economic data. To that end, the…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryBonds ended the day in weaker territory with 10yr yields rising roughly 3bps and Fannie 4.0 MBS losing nearly a quarter of a point. Much like yesterday, bonds lost most of their ground in the overnight session. Much like yesterday, an absence of drama in equities markets gave way to bond losses. Taken together with the last 4 trading sessions, bonds look as though they’re bouncing at 10yr yield levels near 3.06. In that sense, today’s modest weakness offers another bit of confirmation for that bounce. The counterpoint is that yields seemed similarly unwilling to break up above 3.16% today. The general unwillingness to extend a rally or to spike to higher yields is consistent with indecision . Perhaps bonds are waiting for input from the upcoming economic data or from next week’s…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireWhile they are talking apples and oranges, both the U.S. Census Bureau and ATTOM Data Solutions each took a recent look at residential vacancies . The Census Bureau’s quarterly report on Residential Vacancies and Homeownership noted a decline in the incidence of rental property vacancies and a stable situation among owned properties while ATTOM was concerned primarily with what they call “zombie” foreclosures, homes that fall vacant during the foreclosure process. The Census Bureau puts the vacancy rate for rental housing at 7.1 percent in the third quarter of this year, down from 7.5 percent last year, while the homeowner vacancy rate, at 1.6 percent was identical year-over-year. The report estimates a total of 138.6 million housing units nationwide, 121.354 million or 87.6 percent of which…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireAfter posting the first across-the-board volume increases in almost a month during the week ended October 19, activity reversed last week, and the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index declined 2.5 percent. The index, produced by the Mortgage Bankers Association, lost 3 percent on an unadjusted basis. The MBA’s Refinance Index was down by 4 percent during the week ended October 26, the fourth negative report in the last five weeks, and the share of applications that were for refinancing decreased to 39.4 percent from 39.8 percent. Both the seasonally adjusted and the unadjusted Purchase Indices declined by 2 percent from the previous week and the unadjusted version was 0.4 percent below the level during the same week in 2017, the first year-over-year loss since August. The average size…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline Press“The best part about Halloween is that the cobwebs in my house look like decorations.” For perhaps a morning, the focus for lenders has shifted away from cash flow and recruiting to who will win the yearly Halloween costume contest. The usual favorite (IT – Minions) or the long-shot shipping department (Ninja Turtles)? Perhaps accounting (The Pricing is Right!) or underwriting (Game of Thrones)? Compliance and QC departments have been gutted, but their Baywatch entries turned heads in the past. Or perhaps the dark horse: Capital Markets as One Direction. So much intrigue! Lender Products and Services Advantage Credit, Inc ., a leading provider of credit reporting and verification services to the mortgage industry is pleased to announce its merger with Clear Choice Credit based in…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireFreddie Mac is forecasting that there will be GDP growth of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of this year, moderating from the strong 4.2 percent growth in the first quarter. The company’s October Forecast, prepared by its Economic and Housing Research Group, now extends its predictions into 2020 and they are looking at substantial economic slowing by then. The forecast for all of 2018 is growth of 3.0 percent, slowing to 2.4 percent next year and to only 1.8 percent in 2020 “as the effects of expansionary fiscal policy fade.” Last year’s hurricanes damaged both the economy and the housing sector, but at this point Hurricane Florence is expected to create only a small dip in economic growth and cause no appreciable increase in foreclosures. The labor market picture continues to be strong with…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.