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Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates began the day slightly higher . In fact, for several lenders, it was the biggest day-over-day move higher in more than 2 weeks. The key word here is “was.” Things quickly changed in the mid-morning hours after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered his opening address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. To make a long story short, Powell’s comments erred on the side of being rate-friendly . It’s not that he said the Fed would stop hiking rates or stop winding down its bond buying, but he did saw that the justifications for rate hikes and the bond-buying wind-down weren’t especially troubling or urgent at the moment. Markets were left with the impression that the Fed was a bit more willing to consider leveling-off its trajectory of tightening. “Tightening” is usually another word for “higher…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryDear Kansas City Fed, Thank you for hosting another year of the storied Jackson Hole Symposium. I’m not here to vent about the fact that you could easily handle this event in Kansas City instead of in a venue that sort of exemplifies much of what is wrong about money in America. (And no, I’m not a communist. Capitalism is great, but I feel for those that are below the waterline who would feel like they won the lottery if they could live in the lower floor of a Jackson Hole vacation home that’s occupied 2 weeks per year). Neither am I here to talk about whether or not you guys could do anything to push back against decades of fiscal policies and local real estate regulations that have helped drive the bipolarization. Clearly, you can’t. I believe you would if you could. The average…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe rain is still pouring down in Oahu, but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are ahead of the game. Both GSEs have already announced that their disaster relief programs are in effect for those impacted by Hurricane Lane. Assistance is available for borrowers with GSE related mortgages on homes in presidentially-declared disaster areas where the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has made individual assistance programs available. We would assume in this case that would be everyone in Hawaii, but where that type of FEMA assistance is not available, servicers are advised they can leverage short-term forbearance programs to provide immediate assistance to affected borrowers. The relief available from the GSEs includes: Forbearance from making mortgage payments for up to 12 months. Waived late…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Pipeline PressThere are definitional differences between PUDs, condos, apartments, and townhomes, including who owns the land. (Based on historical performance of delinquencies, potential liability, and servicing values, some investors price them differently.) I mention this because the NAHB tells us that townhouse construction posted significant gains during the 2 nd quarter of 2018. The wave of the future? And have you ever heard of the 20K Initiative? After designing an incredibly cheap home, the 20K Initiative is now working with Fannie Mae and others to redesign mortgages and other factors that make home ownership so expensive . Lender Products and Services “The Knowledge Coop has some brand-new, killer continuing education content out again this year. ‘The Coop’ is known for CE that…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryNot since the eerie holiday-inspired silence of December 22nd 2017 have bonds put in as narrow of a trading day as they did today. 10yr yields didn’t even crack a 0.02% range. It really doesn’t get much narrower than that. MBS didn’t do much better with Fannie 4.0 holding inside a 3/32nds (0.09) range in terms of price. While there was some economic data this morning in the form of New Home Sales (slightly weaker than expected), it did nothing to move markets (obviously). As a result of all of the above, there’s really not much to say about today. So how about tomorrow? We’ll get Durable Goods at 8:30am, which can definitely move markets, but not without fail. The bigger headline potential may lie with the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium which will give Powell a chance…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireThe first serious mortgage related impact from last fall’s hurricanes started to hit home in July . Foreclosure starts rose 11 percent from June, with the greatest change 19 percent, in storm affected parts of Texas. Black Knight said, in its “first look” at July loan performance data, that the increase brought starts to 48,300, the highest total in three months. The increase came off of a 17-year low for starts in June. The rate of starts is still 9.3 percent lower than in July 2017. On the other hand, hurricane-related cures pushed delinquencies to a 12 year low . The number of loans that were 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure dropped by 64,000 since June to 1.861 million, a year-over-year decline of 125,000. This brought the delinquency rate down by 3.35 percent from the June…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates have been more or less unchanged since August 10th . That’s an impressively boring streak even by summertime standards. Why does summertime matter? Simply put, rates are ultimately a factor of trading that’s conducted directly or indirectly by humans. Humans tend to feel and act more “vacationy” in August, whether they’re in the office or not! While this dynamic can sometimes create imbalances that cause volatility, the typical result is lower volatility. We’ve seen 2 great examples of this so far this summer–first in late June through late July, and now over these past 2 weeks. The flat trend will change sometime fairly soon, but HOW soon is anyone’s guess. Tomorrow brings the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, which has been an event that has broken such stalemates…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireNew home sales broke out of the up-one-month, down the next pattern they have adopted since March, and not in a good way . The Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that sales of newly constructed single-family homes retreated further in July, declining 1.7 percent on top of a 5.3 percent loss in June . Sales during the month were estimated at a seasonally adjusted rate of 627,000 compared to a revised (from 631,000) pace of 638,000 units in June. Despite the decline, sales are still a healthy 12.8 percent higher than in July 2017. That rate was estimated at 556,000 units. Analysts polled by Econoday had been looking for a sales rate between 630,000 and 660,000. The consensus was 649,000 units. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis there were 53,000 homes sold…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MND NewsWireHome prices for purchases financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac appreciated at an 0.2 percent rate during June, and the estimate for May was increased from the 0.2 percent originally reported to 0.4 percent. It also appears that April’s gain, which was revised last month from 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent has been revised again, up another 0.1 point. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, regulator and conservator for the GSEs, reported that home prices rose 6.5 percent compared to their Housing Price Index (HPI) for June 2017. Prices were up month-over-month in seven of the nine census regions , ranging from 0.1 percent in the West South Central division to 0.7 percent in the Mountain division. Those two states also posted the smallest and the largest year-over-year changes, 5.0 and 9.5 percent…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Posted To: MBS CommentaryIs today the day we break the “key technical level” at 2.82? Spoiler alert: you shouldn’t care and it doesn’t matter . I’m sorry if this is disillusioning or confusing. I spend a fair amount of time talking about technicals and various lines in the sand. It might leave you with the impression that some future move is more likely if we can just get past a certain hurdle. But technical levels aren’t as simple as “glass ceilings” for bond prices. They’re much more like mile markers that simply let us know where we’re at on any given journey. If you’d like to bask in more long-winded definitions and discussions, here they are: Basic Concepts of technical analysis Pivot Points, Key Levels, Floors, Ceilings, Etc. Trust The Technicals? The bottom line…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.